5 Telling Stats from Everton’s Crushing Defeat to Newcastle

Goals from Callum Wilson, Joelinton, and Jacob Murphy delivered Everton’s 17th defeat of the 2022/23 Premier League season. The loss leaves Everton sat in 19th, two points below the safety line. With the end of the season quickly approaching, the Toffees’ odds of escape are becoming narrower and narrower with every passing week, and the end of their 72-year stay in the Top Flight of English Football may soon be over. Here are 5 Telling Stats from Everton’s crushing defeat to Newcastle United.

1. Absent Goodison Advantage

Last year, Everton relied on their home fixtures to avoid relegation, picking up massive victories over Chelsea, Manchester United, and of course, Crystal Palace during the season's final stretch. This year, however, Everton are being regularly dismantled at Goodison Park despite the fans’ ongoing displays of incredible support. Although Sean Dyche has picked up three 1-0 wins at Goodison during his time in charge thus far, the last two performances at the Grand Old Lady have been nothing short of dismal. The 3-1 loss to a manager-less and Mitrovic-less Fulham was embarrassing, and Thursday night’s rout at the hands of Newcastle United was even worse. Now, Everton have just two home fixtures remaining: Manchester City and Bournemouth. I personally think that by the time the Cherries come to Goodison on the final day of the season, the Toffees may well already be relegated. Everton must now win games on the road, or they will have no chance of surviving.

2. Wilson Woes

Callum Wilson was the star man for Newcastle United on Thursday night. His second goal was the standout moment of the match, as his curled effort which flew past a helpless Jordan Pickford and into the top-right corner was a real thing of beauty. The 31-year-old has 8 goals in his last 6 games against the Toffees and has become the first Newcastle player to score 13 or more Premier League goals since Loic Remy in 2013/14. Everton’s first-choice striker, on the other hand, has scored just once in his 13 appearances this season.

3. The Gaffer Doesn’t Matter

Looking at the records below, it’s pretty clear that the players are mainly to blame for Everton’s performances over the past two seasons. That being said, the real blame should be placed on those who brought these players in. For years, Everton have signed players for inflated fees with inflated wages to appease the manager at the time without having any larger plan or vision, and then, when that manager is inevitably sacked, that player no longer fits the new manager’s plans and leaves for a huge loss. This is a cycle we’ve seen over and over since Moshiri’s reign began. The lack of foresight within the club’s leadership is simply staggering, and although it’s clear that a full rebuild is necessary regardless of which league Everton plays in this fall, I have zero faith in the club’s current leadership to execute any sort of revamp.

4. Tale of Two Trajectories

While Everton are closing in on their first relegation in 72 years, Newcastle are looking for their first Top 4 finish since they came 3rd in 2002/03 behind Alan Shearer’s 25 league goals. These two clubs have both had billionaire takeovers in the last decade, yet one has fallen to new lows, while the other has risen to new highs. The difference? Competent leadership. Are you starting to see a theme? Everton’s ignorant owner and self-congratulatory board are entirely to blame for the catastrophe the club currently finds itself in, and until there is change at the top, I don’t see Everton’s fortunes turning around any time soon.

5. The Impossible Seems Inevitable

After Thursday night’s loss, Everton’s chances of relegation have risen to 75% according to FiveThirtyEight’s simulation model; the highest it has been at any point over the last two seasons. Monday’s trip to the King Power stadium represents a final chance for Everton, as a victory over fellow relegation candidates Leicester City would be a crucial step towards achieving a great escape, but a loss or even a draw would likely represent the final nail in the Toffees’ coffin.