Everton Relegation Worry Is Unfounded

Once again it is doom and gloom for Everton. Or at least that is what it seems like based on my Twitter feed. Every fan is decrying Roberto Martinez's tactics, the incompetence of the players, and the poor refereeing that we have seen during this rather ugly December stretch. Yes, it certainly isn't good to appear this inept, but fans truly do have short memories. How about the fall of 2009 or 2010 when Everton was sitting in a similar position to today? Those seasons worked out well enough. Maybe not the way fans dreaming of Champions League football had planned, but those dreams were always pipe dreams for Everton. We do not have the squad depth nor the quality for Champions League football.

The above chart is Everton's performance in the first and second half of the listed seasons based on points earned. Obviously 21 points is not what fans have come to expect over the past 2 seasons. But before that 22-24 points in the fall was fairly common. Not ideal, but a strong second half from the club saw Everton moving into contention for Europa League qualification rather than sliding into the relegation zone. Heck one of the seasons saw us start the New Year in 16th place and it worked out.

Of course the big problem this year is the defense. Everton has committed a comedy of errors en route to a rather ugly goals allowed number of 32. Last year the club allowed 39 goals in league play. If Everton keep this alarming pace up, it would result in 64 goals allowed.

Based on several studies done, conceding 10 fewer goals over a season results in 2.5 fewer losses or an additional 2.5 - 7.5 points earned. For Everton that would mean an additional 5-15 points earned last season compared to this one depending on how those results shake out. That's rather startling and significant. Arguably rather depressing too.

The point is the hysterics need to stop. There was nowhere near the grumblings about David Moyes that can be seen about Roberto Martinez. Yes, it may be infuriating to hear Martinez talk about how Everton almost won the game despite playing like a League One side, but it is just coach speak. Take a breath and relax. If this form continues through January then there will be cause for concern. Instead, let's all hope the players remember how to play proper football rather than running about like a some 5 year old rugrats.