Everton - Points Analysis of Last 7 Seasons

The Toffees have often played bridesmaid for European qualification in recent seasons, and fans have clamored that they deserved a spot with the points they picked up during the season. However, a quick statistical analysis using just arithmetical means shows that Everton have been just about where they deserved, except during the 2009-2010 season, when they finished 8th but could just as easily have been 6th.

The graph below shows the ranges for the final points total and table position on the vertical, with the seasons on the bottom.

The positions circled display Everton's points and positions in the respective years. In seasons 2006-07, 2007-08 and 2008-09 they were dead center of the positional range they were in. However, 2009-10 had a bunch of teams cluttered up between 6-10, and Everton's 61 points put them in 8th when a regular progression would have had them in 6th/7th. The next year once again had them on the brink, with 54 points being good for 7th and almost saw them sneak 6th. 2011-12 had Everton solidly in 7th and then the just-ended year saw Everton at the top of the 6th place range. However, fifth place was a massive nine points ahead, as this last season skewed the rankings with the top five all above 70 points, a first for the League.

This graph can also be used to compare so-called parity in the Premier League, in the top ten positions at least. A lower points total for any given position theoretically shows more parity, while higher points just mean that the top teams beat up on the weaker ones more often.

With money now flooding the Premier League, it will be interesting to see if the middle ten clubs can make the jump up to the elite levels, currently occupied by Manchester United, Manchester City, and Chelsea, with Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur occupying the rung just below. Liverpool have the financial clout to compete with those five. And then there's the economic gulf separating that lot from the chasing pack, with Everton heading up that group that includes Fulham, Swansea City and the like. On an off season, it is quite possible for a team from that bunch to jump up like Newcastle United did a couple of years ago, but to maintain that position consistently a team has to have the deep coffers that the leaders do, which is reflected in how closely the wage bill chart matches the final League position chart. Here's an example from 2011-12, with a net spending from 2003-12 rank also thrown in for good measure.

One other factor that is going to come into play in the years to come is Financial Fair Play, a set of rules imposed by UEFA. While this is a 90-page document that we are not going to get into at this time, the highlights are that clubs must not only look to break even, but taxes must be promptly paid, with transfer fees and player wages also being paid on time. For more information I refer you to Ed Thompson's comprehensive yet easily-understood website 'Financial Fair Play'.